2026 midterm election odds by race: Kalshi vs Polymarket

56 races priced on both exchanges · updated Oct 20, 12:07 AM ET

Democrats to win — House: Kalshi 90.15¢, Polymarket US 90.05¢ · Senate: Kalshi 62.5¢, Polymarket US 62.95¢. Each price is the venue’s own.

Control of Congress: balance of power odds

RaceOutcomeKalshiPolymarket USGap
Control of the U.S. HouseDemocrats win90.15¢90.05¢0.1¢
Control of the U.S. SenateDemocrats win62.5¢62.95¢0.45¢

Senate odds by state, closest first

RaceOutcomeKalshiPolymarket USGap
Iowa SenateRepublicans win57.5¢58.5¢1¢
Texas SenateDemocrats win61.5¢61.5¢0¢
Maine SenateDemocrats win61.5¢61.5¢0¢
Kansas SenateRepublicans win62.5¢63.5¢1¢
Ohio SenateDemocrats win64.5¢63.5¢1¢
Michigan SenateDemocrats win68.5¢67.5¢1¢
Nebraska SenateRepublicans win73.5¢75.5¢2¢
South Carolina SenateRepublicans win82.5¢83.5¢1¢
Mississippi SenateRepublicans win88.5¢88.5¢0¢
New Hampshire SenateDemocrats win89.5¢89.5¢0¢
Montana SenateRepublicans win90.3¢92.5¢2.2¢
Florida SenateRepublicans win91.4¢92.5¢1.1¢
South Dakota SenateRepublicans win91.9¢93.5¢1.6¢
Georgia SenateDemocrats win95.45¢93.5¢1.95¢
Idaho SenateRepublicans win94.5¢95.5¢1¢
Arkansas SenateRepublicans win94.95¢95.5¢0.55¢
Tennessee SenateRepublicans win95.65¢95.5¢0.15¢
North Carolina SenateDemocrats win95.95¢95.5¢0.45¢
New Jersey SenateDemocrats win95.5¢96.5¢1¢
Kentucky SenateRepublicans win96.6¢95.5¢1.1¢
Virginia SenateDemocrats win97.5¢97.5¢0¢
Oregon SenateDemocrats win98.5¢97.5¢1¢
Delaware SenateDemocrats win97.85¢98.5¢0.65¢
Massachusetts SenateDemocrats win98.3¢98.5¢0.2¢
Colorado SenateDemocrats win98.95¢98.5¢0.45¢
Rhode Island SenateDemocrats win98.55¢99¢0.45¢

Governor odds by state, closest first

RaceOutcomeKalshiPolymarket USGap
Georgia governorRepublicans win50.5¢49.5¢1¢
Nevada governorDemocrats win55.5¢56.5¢1¢
Ohio governorDemocrats win70.5¢69.5¢1¢
Kansas governorRepublicans win75.5¢75.5¢0¢
Texas governorRepublicans win76.5¢75.5¢1¢
Vermont governorRepublicans win76.5¢76.5¢0¢
Wisconsin governorDemocrats win79.5¢80.5¢1¢
Oregon governorDemocrats win80.5¢79.5¢1¢
Florida governorRepublicans win79.5¢81.5¢2¢
Iowa governorDemocrats win87.5¢88.5¢1¢
Oklahoma governorRepublicans win89.5¢88.5¢1¢
Nebraska governorRepublicans win88.5¢90.5¢2¢
Arizona governorDemocrats win90.65¢89.5¢1.15¢
Michigan governorDemocrats win91.8¢92.5¢0.7¢
Tennessee governorRepublicans win92.6¢93.5¢0.9¢
Alabama governorRepublicans win92.95¢93.5¢0.55¢
New York governorDemocrats win93.9¢93.5¢0.4¢
New Mexico governorDemocrats win93.35¢94.5¢1.15¢
Minnesota governorDemocrats win94.95¢94.5¢0.45¢
Massachusetts governorDemocrats win95¢94.5¢0.5¢
Maine governorDemocrats win94.2¢95.5¢1.3¢
Rhode Island governorDemocrats win94.8¢95.5¢0.7¢
Illinois governorDemocrats win95.85¢95.5¢0.35¢
Connecticut governorDemocrats win96.3¢96.5¢0.2¢
Pennsylvania governorDemocrats win96.6¢96.5¢0.1¢
Colorado governorDemocrats win96.55¢97.5¢0.95¢
Maryland governorDemocrats win97.4¢97.5¢0.1¢
South Dakota governorRepublicans win97.65¢98.5¢0.85¢

Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Gap is the widest difference between two venues. Click a race for both venues’ bid, ask, volume, price history and the latest polls.

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