New Hampshire Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Chris Pappas) to win the New Hampshire Senate race: Kalshi 89.5¢, Polymarket US 89.5¢, Polymarket 88.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
New Hampshire Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 89.5¢ | -852 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $623k |
| Polymarket US | 89.5¢ | -852 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $2.6M |
| Polymarket | 88.5¢ | -770 | 88¢ | 89¢ | $207k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | 613 LV | Chris Pappas 50 · John Sununu 45 | +5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 1,418 LV | Chris Pappas 50 · John Sununu 42 · Edmond Laplante 2 | +8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-17 | 1,200 LV | Chris Pappas 48 · John Sununu 40 | +8 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-24 | 1,878 LV | Chris Pappas 45 · Scott Brown 40 | +5 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-24 | 1,878 LV | John Sununu 45 · Chris Pappas 43 | +2 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2026-08-18 | 1,411 LV | Chris Pappas 48 · John Sununu 41 | +7 |
| Saint Anselm College Survey Center | 2026-08-18 | 1,411 LV | Chris Pappas 49 · Scott Brown 37 | +12 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the New Hampshire Senate race?
Democrats (Chris Pappas) to win the New Hampshire Senate race: Kalshi 89.5¢, Polymarket US 89.5¢, Polymarket 88.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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