Florida Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Ashley Moody) to win the Florida Senate race: Kalshi 91.3¢, Polymarket US 92.5¢, Polymarket 90.5¢. The exchanges are 1.2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Florida Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 91.3¢ | -1049 | 91.2¢ | 91.4¢ | $469k |
| Polymarket US | 92.5¢ | -1233 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $504k |
| Polymarket | 90.5¢ | -953 | 90¢ | 91¢ | $146k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MDW | 2026-10-10 | 800 LV | Ashley Moody 48 · Angie Nixon 42 | +6 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-10-07 | 836 LV | Ashley Moody 47 · Angie Nixon 45 | +2 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-10-04 | 857 LV | Ashley Moody 52 · Angie Nixon 42 | +10 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-10-04 | 1,200 RV | Ashley Moody 50 · Angie Nixon 38 | +12 |
| Change Research | 2026-09-27 | 1,063 LV | Ashley Moody 48 · Angie Nixon 47 | +1 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-21 | 600 LV | Ashley Moody 49.3 · Angie Nixon 41.8 · Neil Gillespie 2.4 | +7.5 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2026-09-21 | 830 LV | Ashley Moody 51 · Angie Nixon 40 | +11 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-09-17 | 913 LV | Ashley Moody 45.2 · Angie Nixon 44.8 | +0.4 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Florida Senate race?
Republicans (Ashley Moody) to win the Florida Senate race: Kalshi 91.3¢, Polymarket US 92.5¢, Polymarket 90.5¢. The exchanges are 1.2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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