Arizona governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Katie Hobbs) to win the Arizona governor race: Kalshi 90.6¢, Polymarket US 89.5¢, Polymarket 92.5¢. The exchanges are 1.1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Arizona governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90.6¢ | -964 | 90.5¢ | 90.7¢ | $433k |
| Polymarket US | 89.5¢ | -852 | 89¢ | 90¢ | $7.8M |
| Polymarket | 92.5¢ | -1233 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $110k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equis Research | 2026-10-09 | 1,214 RV | Katie Hobbs 49 · Andy Biggs 43 | +6 |
| BSP Research | 2026-09-04 | LV | Katie Hobbs 47 · Andy Biggs 34 · Teri Ann Hourihan 2 | +13 |
| NextGen Polling | 2026-08-19 | 1,627 RV | Katie Hobbs 39 · Andy Biggs 38 · Risa Lombardo 1 | +1 |
| HighGround | 2026-08-18 | 400 LV | Katie Hobbs 50 · Andy Biggs 34 · Teri Hourihan 2 | +16 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-08-17 | 780 LV | Katie Hobbs 49 · Andy Biggs 43 | +6 |
| Kreate Strategies | 2026-08-16 | 900 LV | Katie Hobbs 45 · Andy Biggs 40 | +5 |
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-08-13 | 923 LV | Katie Hobbs 48 · Andy Biggs 35 · Risa Lombardo 2 | +13 |
| Stealth Analytics | 2026-08-13 | 530 LV | Katie Hobbs 43 · Andy Biggs 38 | +5 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Arizona governor race?
Democrats (Katie Hobbs) to win the Arizona governor race: Kalshi 90.6¢, Polymarket US 89.5¢, Polymarket 92.5¢. The exchanges are 1.1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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