Michigan governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Jocelyn Benson) to win the Michigan governor race: Kalshi 91.6¢, Polymarket US 92.5¢, Polymarket 92.7¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Michigan governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 91.6¢ | -1090 | 91.1¢ | 92.1¢ | $106k |
| Polymarket US | 92.5¢ | -1233 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $1.2M |
| Polymarket | 92.7¢ | -1270 | 92.5¢ | 92.9¢ | $150k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 2026-10-27 | 800 LV | Jocelyn Benson 50 · John James 45 | +5 |
| Z to A Research | 2026-10-01 | 483 LV | Jocelyn Benson 50 · John James 40 · Anthony Hudson 4 | +10 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-09-28 | 1,028 LV | Jocelyn Benson 54 · John James 45 | +9 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-23 | 843 LV | Jocelyn Benson 47 · John James 44 | +3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | 605 LV | Jocelyn Benson 48 · John James 43 | +5 |
| Cygnal/Beacon Research | 2026-09-21 | 600 LV | Jocelyn Benson 45 · John James 38 · Anthony Hudson 3 | +7 |
| Suffolk University | 2026-09-20 | 500 LV | Jocelyn Benson 51 · John James 34 · Douglas Campbell 2 | +17 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-14 | 1,000 LV | Jocelyn Benson 48.6 · John James 41.9 · Anthony Hudson 1.8 | +6.7 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Michigan governor race?
Democrats (Jocelyn Benson) to win the Michigan governor race: Kalshi 91.6¢, Polymarket US 92.5¢, Polymarket 92.7¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this race — both venues streaming, the order book and related news.