Nebraska Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Pete Ricketts) to win the Nebraska Senate race: Kalshi 73.5¢, Polymarket US 75.5¢, Polymarket 71.5¢. The exchanges are 2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Nebraska Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 73.5¢ | -277 | 73¢ | 74¢ | $1.6M |
| Polymarket US | 75.5¢ | -308 | 75¢ | 76¢ | $306k |
| Polymarket | 71.5¢ | -251 | 71¢ | 72¢ | $386k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| National Public Affairs | 2026-10-05 | 800 LV | Pete Ricketts 49 · Dan Osborn 46 | +3 |
| GBAO Strategies | 2026-09-08 | 800 LV | Dan Osborn 47 · Pete Ricketts 46 | +1 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Nebraska Senate race?
Republicans (Pete Ricketts) to win the Nebraska Senate race: Kalshi 73.5¢, Polymarket US 75.5¢, Polymarket 71.5¢. The exchanges are 2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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