Georgia Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Jon Ossoff) to win the Georgia Senate race: Kalshi 95.35¢, Polymarket US 93.5¢, Polymarket 96.15¢. The exchanges are 1.85¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Georgia Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 95.35¢ | -2051 | 95.3¢ | 95.4¢ | $558k |
| Polymarket US | 93.5¢ | -1438 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $2.2M |
| Polymarket | 96.15¢ | -2497 | 95.7¢ | 96.6¢ | $101k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-10-03 | 600 LV | Jon Ossoff 55 · Mike Collins 45 | +10 |
| Big Data Poll | 2026-09-23 | 678 LV | Jon Ossoff 55.4 · Mike Collins 44.6 | +10.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-23 | 1,200 LV | Jon Ossoff 50 · Mike Collins 42 | +8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-08-17 | 800 LV | Jon Ossoff 50.1 · Mike Collins 42.6 | +7.5 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Georgia Senate race?
Democrats (Jon Ossoff) to win the Georgia Senate race: Kalshi 95.35¢, Polymarket US 93.5¢, Polymarket 96.15¢. The exchanges are 1.85¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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