New York governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Kathy Hochul) to win the New York governor race: Kalshi 94.1¢, Polymarket US 93.5¢, Polymarket 94.8¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
New York governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 94.1¢ | -1595 | 94¢ | 94.2¢ | $808k |
| Polymarket US | 93.5¢ | -1438 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $2.3M |
| Polymarket | 94.8¢ | -1823 | 94.7¢ | 94.9¢ | $96k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beacon Research | 2026-10-06 | 820 RV | Kathy Hochul 53 · Bruce Blakeman 31 | +22 |
| Emerson College | 2026-10-05 | 900 LV | Kathy Hochul 52.4 · Bruce Blakeman 39.7 | +12.7 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-25 | 1,046 LV | Kathy Hochul 48 · Bruce Blakeman 41 | +7 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-09-20 | 1,026 LV | Kathy Hochul 58 · Bruce Blakeman 39 | +19 |
| Concord Public Opinion Partners | 2026-08-21 | 505 LV | Kathy Hochul 50 · Bruce Blakeman 34 | +16 |
| Siena University | 2026-08-06 | 811 LV | Kathy Hochul 49 · Bruce Blakeman 39 | +10 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the New York governor race?
Democrats (Kathy Hochul) to win the New York governor race: Kalshi 94.1¢, Polymarket US 93.5¢, Polymarket 94.8¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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