Massachusetts governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Maura Healey) to win the Massachusetts governor race: Kalshi 95¢, Polymarket US 94.5¢, Polymarket 95.8¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Massachusetts governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 95¢ | -1900 | 94.9¢ | 95.1¢ | $303k |
| Polymarket US | 94.5¢ | -1718 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $208k |
| Polymarket | 95.8¢ | -2281 | 95.3¢ | 96.3¢ | $44k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MassINC Polling Group | 2026-09-22 | 800 LV | Maura Healy 51 · Michael Minogue 30 · Andrea James 3 | +21 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 564 LV | Maura Healy 54 · Michael Minogue 38 | +16 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-24 | 881 LV | Maura Healy 54 · Michael Minogue 30 | +24 |
| University of Massachusetts Department of Political Science/YouGov | 2026-08-12 | 800 RV | Maura Healy 53 · Brian Shortsleeve 33 | +20 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Massachusetts governor race?
Democrats (Maura Healey) to win the Massachusetts governor race: Kalshi 95¢, Polymarket US 94.5¢, Polymarket 95.8¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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