Connecticut governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Ned Lamont) to win the Connecticut governor race: Kalshi 96.3¢, Polymarket US 96.5¢, Polymarket 96.6¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Connecticut governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 96.3¢ | -2603 | 96¢ | 96.6¢ | $19k |
| Polymarket US | 96.5¢ | -2757 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $107k |
| Polymarket | 96.6¢ | -2841 | 96.1¢ | 97.1¢ | $6k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College | 2026-10-12 | 800 LV | Ned Lamont 51.4 · Ryan Fazio 37.8 | +13.6 |
| Quinnipiac University | 2026-10-12 | 702 LV | Ned Lamont 58 · Ryan Fazio 38 | +20 |
| Wesleyan University Survey Lab/YouGov | 2026-10-07 | LV | Ned Lamont 57 · Ryan Fazio 34 | +23 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 540 LV | Ned Lamont 55 · Ryan Fazio 38 | +17 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-08-24 | 809 LV | Ned Lamont 52 · Ryan Fazio 37 | +15 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Connecticut governor race?
Democrats (Ned Lamont) to win the Connecticut governor race: Kalshi 96.3¢, Polymarket US 96.5¢, Polymarket 96.6¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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