Who controls the U.S. Senate in 2026?
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:02 AM ET
Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate: Kalshi 62.5¢, Polymarket US 62.95¢, Polymarket 64.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
2026 Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62.5¢ | -167 | 62¢ | 63¢ | $6.9M |
| Polymarket US | 62.95¢ | -170 | 62.9¢ | 63¢ | $20.2M |
| Polymarket | 64.5¢ | -182 | 64¢ | 65¢ | $4.1M |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Common questions
What are the odds in the control of the U.S. Senate?
Democrats to win control of the U.S. Senate: Kalshi 62.5¢, Polymarket US 62.95¢, Polymarket 64.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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