Michigan Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:02 AM ET
Democrats (Abdul El-Sayed) to win the Michigan Senate race: Kalshi 68.5¢, Polymarket US 67.5¢, Polymarket 69.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Michigan Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 68.5¢ | -217 | 68¢ | 69¢ | $3.3M |
| Polymarket US | 67.5¢ | -208 | 67¢ | 68¢ | $5.7M |
| Polymarket | 69.5¢ | -228 | 69¢ | 70¢ | $1.1M |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Tyson Group | 2026-10-08 | 600 LV | Mike Rogers 46 · Abdul El-Sayed 44 | +2 |
| Mitchell Research & Communications | 2026-10-01 | 682 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 46 · Mike Rogers 41 · Lydia Christensen 3 | +5 |
| Z to A Research | 2026-10-01 | 483 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 49 · Mike Rogers 42 · Lydia Christensen 3 | +7 |
| Trafalgar Group | 2026-09-30 | 1,085 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 47 · Mike Rogers 45 · Lydia Christensen 2 | +2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-09-28 | 1,028 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 50 · Mike Rogers 49 | +1 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 2026-09-27 | 800 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 48 · Mike Rogers 43 · Lydia Christensen 1 | +5 |
| The Tyson Group | 2026-09-27 | 600 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 44 · Mike Rogers 43 | +1 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-23 | 843 LV | Abdul El-Sayed 50 · Mike Rogers 50 | +0 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Michigan Senate race?
Democrats (Abdul El-Sayed) to win the Michigan Senate race: Kalshi 68.5¢, Polymarket US 67.5¢, Polymarket 69.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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