Texas Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:02 AM ET
Democrats (James Talarico) to win the Texas Senate race: Kalshi 61.5¢, Polymarket US 61.5¢, Polymarket 62.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Texas Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61.5¢ | -160 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $11.2M |
| Polymarket US | 61.5¢ | -160 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $10.2M |
| Polymarket | 62.5¢ | -167 | 62¢ | 63¢ | $1.9M |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-14 | 400 LV | James Talarico 51.9 · Ken Paxton 48.1 | +3.8 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-14 | 1,200 LV | Ken Paxton 49 · James Talarico 48 | +1 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-10-11 | 854 LV | Ken Paxton 47.2 · James Talarico 46.7 · Ted Brown 2.2 | +0.5 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-10-08 | 617 LV | James Talarico 48 · Ken Paxton 44 | +4 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-09-28 | 881 LV | James Talarico 51 · Ken Paxton 49 | +2 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 2026-09-28 | 800 LV | James Talarico 46.6 · Ken Paxton 44.2 · Ted Brown 4 | +2.4 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 2026-09-28 | 850 LV | James Talarico 45 · Ken Paxton 45 · Ted Brown 2 | +0 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-09-22 | 1,007 LV | James Talarico 49 · Ken Paxton 45 · Ted Brown 3 | +4 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Texas Senate race?
Democrats (James Talarico) to win the Texas Senate race: Kalshi 61.5¢, Polymarket US 61.5¢, Polymarket 62.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this race — both venues streaming, the order book and related news.