Iowa Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Ashley Hinson) to win the Iowa Senate race: Kalshi 57.5¢, Polymarket US 58.5¢, Polymarket 58.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Iowa Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 57.5¢ | -135 | 57¢ | 58¢ | $2.8M |
| Polymarket US | 58.5¢ | -141 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $11.7M |
| Polymarket | 58.5¢ | -141 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $402k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2026-10-12 | 2,245 LV | Josh Turek 47 · Ashley Hinson 46 | +1 |
| Marist University | 2026-10-11 | 1,100 LV | Josh Turek 48 · Ashley Hinson 45 | +3 |
| Emerson College | 2026-10-06 | 650 LV | Ashley Hinson 46.6 · Josh Turek 45 · Thomas Laehn 1.5 | +1.6 |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-05 | 801 LV | Ashley Hinson 45 · Josh Turek 43 | +2 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-09-28 | 1,008 LV | Josh Turek 49 · Ashley Hinson 47 | +2 |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | 1,050 RV | Josh Turek 50 · Ashley Hinson 42 | +8 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-16 | 831 LV | Ashley Hinson 46 · Josh Turek 42 · Thomas Laehn 2 | +4 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-08 | 2,166 RV | Josh Turek 44 · Ashley Hinson 43 | +1 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Iowa Senate race?
Republicans (Ashley Hinson) to win the Iowa Senate race: Kalshi 57.5¢, Polymarket US 58.5¢, Polymarket 58.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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