Pennsylvania governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Josh Shapiro) to win the Pennsylvania governor race: Kalshi 96.6¢, Polymarket US 96.5¢, Polymarket 96.75¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Pennsylvania governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 96.6¢ | -2841 | 96.4¢ | 96.8¢ | $278k |
| Polymarket US | 96.5¢ | -2757 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $121k |
| Polymarket | 96.75¢ | -2977 | 96.5¢ | 97¢ | $12k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | 2026-10-01 | 630 LV | Josh Shapiro 53 · Stacy Garrity 34 · Ken Krawchuk 3 | +19 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-09-22 | 624 RV | Josh Shapiro 55 · Stacy Garrity 28 | +27 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | 615 LV | Josh Shapiro 58 · Stacy Garrity 38 | +20 |
| Franklin & Marshall College | 2026-08-23 | 501 RV | Josh Shapiro 50 · Stacy Garrity 25 · Tony Dastra 2 | +25 |
| Bravo Group | 2026-08-22 | 711 LV | Josh Shapiro 56 · Stacy Garrity 25 | +31 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-08-21 | 760 LV | Josh Shapiro 55 · Stacy Garrity 39 | +16 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-08-21 | 760 RV | Josh Shapiro 54 · Stacy Garrity 37 | +17 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Pennsylvania governor race?
Democrats (Josh Shapiro) to win the Pennsylvania governor race: Kalshi 96.6¢, Polymarket US 96.5¢, Polymarket 96.75¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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