Maine Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Troy Jackson) to win the Maine Senate race: Kalshi 61.5¢, Polymarket US 61.5¢, Polymarket 63.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Maine Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61.5¢ | -160 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $4.4M |
| Polymarket US | 61.5¢ | -160 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $4.0M |
| Polymarket | 63.5¢ | -174 | 63¢ | 64¢ | $1.3M |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-14 | 1,200 LV | Troy Jackson 49 · Susan Collins 47 | +2 |
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | 2026-10-05 | 800 LV | Troy Jackson 50 · Susan Collins 45 | +5 |
| Marist University | 2026-10-04 | 1,505 RV | Troy Jackson 51 · Susan Collins 47 | +4 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-10-01 | 400 LV | Troy Jackson 52 · Susan Collins 48 | +4 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-30 | 1,240 LV | Susan Collins 48 · Troy Jackson 46 | +2 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2026-09-22 | 982 LV | Troy Jackson 50 · Susan Collins 47 | +3 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | 619 LV | Susan Collins 49 · Troy Jackson 46 | +3 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 1,312 LV | Troy Jackson 51 · Susan Collins 47 | +4 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Maine Senate race?
Democrats (Troy Jackson) to win the Maine Senate race: Kalshi 61.5¢, Polymarket US 61.5¢, Polymarket 63.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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