Wisconsin governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (David Crowley) to win the Wisconsin governor race: Kalshi 79.5¢, Polymarket US 80.5¢, Polymarket 80.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Wisconsin governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79.5¢ | -388 | 79¢ | 80¢ | $535k |
| Polymarket US | 80.5¢ | -413 | 80¢ | 81¢ | $1.3M |
| Polymarket | 80.5¢ | -413 | 80¢ | 81¢ | $376k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research | 2026-10-01 | 662 LV | David Crowley 49 · Tom Tiffany 44 | +5 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-09-23 | 692 LV | David Crowley 49 · Tom Tiffany 46 | +3 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-08-20 | 891 RV | Tom Tiffany 44 · David Crowley 44 | +0 |
| Marquette University Law School | 2026-08-20 | 738 LV | David Crowley 49 · Tom Tiffany 44 | +5 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-08-18 | 1,119 LV | David Crowley 47 · Tom Tiffany 43 | +4 |
| TIPP Insights | 2026-08-18 | 1,434 RV | David Crowley 43 · Tom Tiffany 41 | +2 |
| Platform Communications | 2026-08-13 | 500 LV | David Crowley 48 · Tom Tiffany 44 | +4 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Wisconsin governor race?
Democrats (David Crowley) to win the Wisconsin governor race: Kalshi 79.5¢, Polymarket US 80.5¢, Polymarket 80.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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