Maine governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Hannah Pingree) to win the Maine governor race: Kalshi 94.2¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 95.3¢. The exchanges are 1.3¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Maine governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 94.2¢ | -1624 | 93.6¢ | 94.8¢ | $38k |
| Polymarket US | 95.5¢ | -2122 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $71k |
| Polymarket | 95.3¢ | -2028 | 94.7¢ | 95.9¢ | $34k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| The Washington Post/George Mason University School of Policy and Government | 2026-10-05 | 800 LV | Hannah Pingree 49 · Bobby Charles 36 · Rick Bennett 11 | +13 |
| Marist University | 2026-10-04 | 1,505 RV | Hannah Pingree 52 · Bobby Charles 40 · Rick Bennett 6 | +12 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-30 | 1,240 LV | Hannah Pingree 47 · Bobby Charles 38 · Rick Bennett 6 | +9 |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates/Impact Research | 2026-09-22 | 982 LV | Hannah Pingree 52 · Bobby Charles 39 · Rick Bennett 6 | +13 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-22 | 619 LV | Hannah Pingree 47 · Bobby Charles 34 · Rick Bennett 8 | +13 |
| University of New Hampshire | 2026-09-21 | 1,312 LV | Hannah Pingree 48 · Bobby Charles 40 · Rick Bennett 5 | +8 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 2026-09-14 | 650 LV | Hannah Pingree 49 · Bobby Charles 38 | +11 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-08 | 1,334 LV | Hannah Pingree 47 · Bobby Charles 36 · Rick Bennett 2 | +11 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Maine governor race?
Democrats (Hannah Pingree) to win the Maine governor race: Kalshi 94.2¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 95.3¢. The exchanges are 1.3¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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