New Mexico Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 21, 3:01 PM ET
Democrats (Ben Ray Luján) to win the New Mexico Senate race: Kalshi 96.9¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 96.5¢. The exchanges are 1.4¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
New Mexico Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 96.9¢ | -3126 | 96¢ | 97.8¢ | $27k |
| Polymarket US | 95.5¢ | -2122 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $11k |
| Polymarket | 96.5¢ | -2757 | 95.9¢ | 97.1¢ | $19k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-30 | 576 LV | Ben Ray Luján 54 · Larry Marker 36 | +18 |
| Research & Polling Inc. | 2026-08-28 | 516 LV | Ben Ray Luján 53 · Larry Marker 38 | +15 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the New Mexico Senate race?
Democrats (Ben Ray Luján) to win the New Mexico Senate race: Kalshi 96.9¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 96.5¢. The exchanges are 1.4¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this race — both venues streaming, the order book and related news.