2026 midterm final odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Freezes 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 3 · 58 races · prices now as of Oct 30, 10:57 AM ET
At 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 3, when the first polls close, this page freezes every race's price on Kalshi and Polymarket and keeps it here. As races are called, each venue's settlement goes beside the price it closed at. Until then, these are the prices now.
Every race that will be frozen, priced now
| Race | Outcome | Kalshi | Polymarket US | Polymarket |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Control of the U.S. House | Democrats | 92.35¢ | 92.95¢ | 93.5¢ |
| Control of the U.S. Senate | Democrats | 69.5¢ | 69.65¢ | 71.5¢ |
| Arkansas Senate | Republicans (Tom Cotton) | 94.85¢ | 95.5¢ | 95.1¢ |
| Colorado Senate | Democrats (John Hickenlooper) | 98.15¢ | 98.5¢ | 98.85¢ |
| Delaware Senate | Democrats (Chris Coons) | 98.55¢ | 97.5¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Florida Senate | Republicans (Ashley Moody) | 89.5¢ | 89.5¢ | 89.5¢ |
| Georgia Senate | Democrats (Jon Ossoff) | 96.65¢ | 96.5¢ | 96.9¢ |
| Idaho Senate | Republicans (Jim Risch) | 94.5¢ | 94.5¢ | — |
| Iowa Senate | Republicans (Ashley Hinson) | 55.5¢ | 52.5¢ | 54¢ |
| Kansas Senate | Democrats (Adam Hamilton) | 52.5¢ | 51.5¢ | 53.5¢ |
| Kansas Senate | Republicans (Roger Marshall) | 48.5¢ | 49.5¢ | 45.5¢ |
| Kentucky Senate | Republicans (Andy Barr) | 96.55¢ | 97.5¢ | 97.45¢ |
| Maine Senate | Democrats (Troy Jackson) | 67.5¢ | 67.5¢ | 69¢ |
| Massachusetts Senate | Democrats (Ed Markey) | 98.65¢ | 98.5¢ | 98.7¢ |
| Michigan Senate | Democrats (Abdul El-Sayed) | 74.5¢ | 74.5¢ | 77.5¢ |
| Mississippi Senate | Republicans (Cindy Hyde-Smith) | 88.5¢ | 87.5¢ | 86.5¢ |
| Montana Senate | Republicans (Kurt Alme) | 87.5¢ | 87.5¢ | 88.5¢ |
| Nebraska Senate | Republicans (Pete Ricketts) | 67.5¢ | 68.5¢ | 67.5¢ |
| New Hampshire Senate | Democrats (Chris Pappas) | 91.6¢ | 90.5¢ | 92.5¢ |
| New Jersey Senate | Democrats (Cory Booker) | 97.55¢ | 98.5¢ | 98.4¢ |
| New Mexico Senate | Democrats (Ben Ray Luján) | 98.65¢ | 99¢ | 98.8¢ |
| North Carolina Senate | Democrats (Roy Cooper) | 96.7¢ | 96.5¢ | 97.65¢ |
| Ohio Senate | Democrats (Sherrod Brown) | 69.5¢ | 67.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
| Oregon Senate | Democrats (Jeff Merkley) | 98.25¢ | 98.5¢ | 98.6¢ |
| Rhode Island Senate | Democrats (Jack Reed) | 99.15¢ | 99¢ | 98.95¢ |
| South Carolina Senate | Republicans (Darline Graham) | 72.5¢ | 72.5¢ | 73.5¢ |
| South Dakota Senate | Republicans (Mike Rounds) | 94.65¢ | 95.5¢ | — |
| Tennessee Senate | Republicans (Bill Hagerty) | 96.65¢ | 96.5¢ | 96.3¢ |
| Texas Senate | Democrats (James Talarico) | 69.5¢ | 69.5¢ | 70.5¢ |
| Virginia Senate | Democrats (Mark Warner) | 98.4¢ | 98.5¢ | 98.8¢ |
| Alabama governor | Republicans (Tommy Tuberville) | 93.65¢ | 94.5¢ | 93.7¢ |
| Arizona governor | Democrats (Katie Hobbs) | 91.35¢ | 90.5¢ | 93¢ |
| Colorado governor | Democrats (Phil Weiser) | 96.3¢ | 96.5¢ | 96.85¢ |
| Connecticut governor | Democrats (Ned Lamont) | 96.45¢ | 96.5¢ | 97.4¢ |
| Florida governor | Republicans (Byron Donalds) | 68.5¢ | 69.5¢ | 68.5¢ |
| Georgia governor | Democrats (Keisha Lance Bottoms) | 66.5¢ | 65.5¢ | 65.5¢ |
| Illinois governor | Democrats (JB Pritzker) | 97.6¢ | 97.5¢ | 98.65¢ |
| Iowa governor | Democrats (Rob Sand) | 85.5¢ | 86.5¢ | 87¢ |
| Kansas governor | Republicans (Ty Masterson) | 72.5¢ | 74.5¢ | 71¢ |
| Maine governor | Democrats (Hannah Pingree) | 95.3¢ | 94.5¢ | 96.15¢ |
| Maryland governor | Democrats (Wes Moore) | 97.9¢ | 97.5¢ | 98.75¢ |
| Massachusetts governor | Democrats (Maura Healey) | 96.9¢ | 97.5¢ | 97.85¢ |
| Michigan governor | Democrats (Jocelyn Benson) | 93.95¢ | 92.5¢ | 94.35¢ |
| Minnesota governor | Democrats (Amy Klobuchar) | 96.5¢ | 96.5¢ | 97.65¢ |
| Nebraska governor | Republicans (Jim Pillen) | 84.5¢ | 84.5¢ | 84.5¢ |
| Nevada governor | Democrats (Aaron Ford) | 77.5¢ | 77.5¢ | 79¢ |
| New Mexico governor | Democrats (Deb Haaland) | 94.45¢ | 93.5¢ | 95.8¢ |
| New York governor | Democrats (Kathy Hochul) | 95.75¢ | 95.5¢ | 97.6¢ |
| Ohio governor | Democrats (Amy Acton) | 80.5¢ | 81.5¢ | 82¢ |
| Oklahoma governor | Republicans (Mike Mazzei) | 90.15¢ | 90.5¢ | 91¢ |
| Oregon governor | Democrats (Tina Kotek) | 79.5¢ | 80.5¢ | 83¢ |
| Pennsylvania governor | Democrats (Josh Shapiro) | 97.6¢ | 97.5¢ | 98.3¢ |
| Rhode Island governor | Democrats (Helena Foulkes) | 95.55¢ | 95.5¢ | 96.55¢ |
| South Carolina governor | Republicans (Alan Wilson) | 91.95¢ | 92.5¢ | 92.35¢ |
| South Dakota governor | Republicans (Larry Rhoden) | 97.65¢ | 97.5¢ | 97.1¢ |
| Tennessee governor | Republicans (Marsha Blackburn) | 93.55¢ | 94.5¢ | 93¢ |
| Texas governor | Republicans (Greg Abbott) | 62.5¢ | 63.5¢ | 61.5¢ |
| Vermont governor | Republicans (Phil Scott) | 75.5¢ | 77.5¢ | 77¢ |
| Wisconsin governor | Democrats (David Crowley) | 83.5¢ | 83.5¢ | 85.5¢ |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Until the lock these are our latest read of each venue, re-read every hour; the lock itself reads each venue at that minute.
Common questions
When are the final odds frozen?
At 6:00 PM ET on Tuesday, November 3, when the first polls close. Each race's price, bid and ask on Kalshi, Polymarket US and Polymarket is read from the venue at that minute and written once. It is never rewritten.
Why 6 PM ET?
It is the last moment before any counted vote is reported. A price taken later carries partial results; a price taken earlier misses election-day trading.
How is "right" counted?
A contract priced above 50¢ at the lock leaned Yes; below 50¢ it leaned No. The lean held if the venue settled the contract that way. Each venue is counted on its own contract, so two venues can disagree. A price is what a market traded at, not a forecast, and a 70¢ contract that settles No is not a broken market.
Why can Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each is its own order book with its own traders, fees and settlement rules. A cent or two apart is ordinary.