Minnesota governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Amy Klobuchar) to win the Minnesota governor race: Kalshi 94.95¢, Polymarket US 94.5¢, Polymarket 95¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Minnesota governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 94.95¢ | -1880 | 94.7¢ | 95.2¢ | $210k |
| Polymarket US | 94.5¢ | -1718 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $253k |
| Polymarket | 95¢ | -1900 | 94¢ | 96¢ | $50k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-10-12 | 718 LV | Amy Klobuchar 48 · Lisa Demuth 41 · Steven Young 3 | +7 |
| Mason-Dixon | 2026-10-07 | 800 LV | Amy Klobuchar 50 · Lisa Demuth 41 | +9 |
| GQR | 2026-10-04 | 800 LV | Peggy Flanagan 53 · Michele Tafoya 44 | +9 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-09-14 | 654 LV | Amy Klobuchar 47 · Lisa Demuth 40 · Steven Young 3 | +7 |
| SurveyUSA | 2026-08-17 | 661 LV | Amy Klobuchar 52 · Lisa Demuth 36 · Steven Young 1 | +16 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Minnesota governor race?
Democrats (Amy Klobuchar) to win the Minnesota governor race: Kalshi 94.95¢, Polymarket US 94.5¢, Polymarket 95¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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