Who controls the U.S. House in 2026?
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:02 AM ET
Democrats to win control of the U.S. House: Kalshi 90.15¢, Polymarket US 90.05¢, Polymarket 91.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
2026 House betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90.15¢ | -915 | 90.1¢ | 90.2¢ | $20.3M |
| Polymarket US | 90.05¢ | -905 | 90¢ | 90.1¢ | $49.4M |
| Polymarket | 91.5¢ | -1076 | 91¢ | 92¢ | $10.8M |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
National generic-ballot polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pew Research Center | 2026-10-04 | 3,917 RV | Dem 44 · Rep 36 | +8 |
| YouGov - CBS News | 2026-10-02 | 1,572 LV | Dem 54 · Rep 45 | +9 |
| HarrisX/Harris | 2026-09-28 | LV | Dem 51 · Rep 49 | +2 |
| The Argument/Verasight | 2026-09-22 | LV | Dem 55 · Rep 45 | +10 |
| YouGov | 2026-09-08 | 1,015 LV | Dem 49 · Rep 38 | +11 |
| Morning Consult | 2026-09-06 | 2,203 RV | Dem 46 · Rep 42 | +4 |
| Ipsos | 2026-08-24 | 1,215 A | Dem 35 · Rep 29 | +6 |
| Ipsos | 2026-08-24 | 951 RV | Dem 41 · Rep 35 | +6 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the control of the U.S. House?
Democrats to win control of the U.S. House: Kalshi 90.15¢, Polymarket US 90.05¢, Polymarket 91.5¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this race — both venues streaming, the order book and related news.