Illinois Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Nov 1, 5:01 AM ET
Democrats (Juliana Stratton) to win the Illinois Senate race: Kalshi 97.6¢, Polymarket US 98.5¢, Polymarket 99.1¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Illinois Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 97.6¢ | -4067 | 97.1¢ | 98.1¢ | $36k |
| Polymarket US | 98.5¢ | -6567 | 98¢ | 99¢ | $64k |
| Polymarket | 99.1¢ | -11011 | 98.9¢ | 99.3¢ | $20k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-30 | 400 LV | Juliana Stratton 55.6 · Don Tracy 44.4 | +11.2 |
| ActiVote | 2026-10-20 | 400 LV | Juliana Stratton 59 · Don Tracy 42 | +17 |
| Public Policy Polling | 2026-10-01 | 569 LV | Juliana Stratton 49 · Don Tracy 36 | +13 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Illinois Senate race?
Democrats (Juliana Stratton) to win the Illinois Senate race: Kalshi 97.6¢, Polymarket US 98.5¢, Polymarket 99.1¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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