New Mexico governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Deb Haaland) to win the New Mexico governor race: Kalshi 93.25¢, Polymarket US 94.5¢, Polymarket 94.05¢. The exchanges are 1.25¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
New Mexico governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 93.25¢ | -1381 | 93¢ | 93.5¢ | $41k |
| Polymarket US | 94.5¢ | -1718 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $399k |
| Polymarket | 94.05¢ | -1581 | 94¢ | 94.1¢ | $48k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSP Research | 2026-08-07 | 800 RV | Deb Haaland 41 · Greg Hull 24 | +17 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the New Mexico governor race?
Democrats (Deb Haaland) to win the New Mexico governor race: Kalshi 93.25¢, Polymarket US 94.5¢, Polymarket 94.05¢. The exchanges are 1.25¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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