Montana Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Kurt Alme) to win the Montana Senate race: Kalshi 90.25¢, Polymarket US 92.5¢, Polymarket 92¢. The exchanges are 2.25¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Montana Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 90.25¢ | -926 | 90.2¢ | 90.3¢ | $350k |
| Polymarket US | 92.5¢ | -1233 | 92¢ | 93¢ | $88k |
| Polymarket | 92¢ | -1150 | 91¢ | 93¢ | $103k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Pulse Research & Polling | 2026-09-24 | 604 LV | Kurt Alme 45 · Seth Bodnar 26 · Alani Bankhead 19 | +19 |
| Quantus Insights | 2026-09-15 | 625 LV | Kurt Alme 44 · Seth Bodnar 24 · Alani Bankhead 23 | +20 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Montana Senate race?
Republicans (Kurt Alme) to win the Montana Senate race: Kalshi 90.25¢, Polymarket US 92.5¢, Polymarket 92¢. The exchanges are 2.25¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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