Texas governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Greg Abbott) to win the Texas governor race: Kalshi 76.5¢, Polymarket US 75.5¢, Polymarket 76.25¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Texas governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 76.5¢ | -326 | 76¢ | 77¢ | $913k |
| Polymarket US | 75.5¢ | -308 | 75¢ | 76¢ | $2.0M |
| Polymarket | 76.25¢ | -321 | 75.9¢ | 76.6¢ | $347k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ActiVote | 2026-10-14 | 400 LV | Greg Abbott 50.9 · Gina Hinojosa 49.1 | +1.8 |
| ReconMR/Siena University | 2026-10-08 | 617 LV | Greg Abbott 48 · Gina Hinojosa 47 | +1 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-09-30 | 605 LV | Gina Hinojosa 49 · Greg Abbott 46 | +3 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-09-28 | 881 LV | Greg Abbott 52 · Gina Hinojosa 47 | +5 |
| Guidant Polling and Strategy | 2026-09-28 | 800 LV | Greg Abbott 46 · Gina Hinojosa 44 · Pat Dixon 4 | +2 |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell Center for Public Opinion/YouGov | 2026-09-28 | 850 LV | Greg Abbott 48 · Gina Hinojosa 44 · Pat Dixon 1 | +4 |
| Slingshot Strategies | 2026-09-22 | 1,007 LV | Greg Abbott 50 · Gina Hinojosa 46 · Pat Dixon 2 | +4 |
| Texas Southern University Barbara Jordan Public Policy Research and Survey Center | 2026-09-19 | 1,800 LV | Greg Abbott 49 · Gina Hinojosa 45 · Pat Dixon 2 | +4 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Texas governor race?
Republicans (Greg Abbott) to win the Texas governor race: Kalshi 76.5¢, Polymarket US 75.5¢, Polymarket 76.25¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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