Nevada governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Aaron Ford) to win the Nevada governor race: Kalshi 55.5¢, Polymarket US 56.5¢, Polymarket 58.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Nevada governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 55.5¢ | -125 | 55¢ | 56¢ | $1.1M |
| Polymarket US | 56.5¢ | -130 | 56¢ | 57¢ | $1.3M |
| Polymarket | 58.5¢ | -141 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $284k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Noble Predictive Insights | 2026-09-26 | 800 RV | Joe Lombardo 38 · Aaron Ford 37 · Danielle Ford 7 | +1 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-08 | 680 LV | Aaron Ford 44.2 · Joe Lombardo 42 · Danielle Ford 2.4 | +2.2 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Nevada governor race?
Democrats (Aaron Ford) to win the Nevada governor race: Kalshi 55.5¢, Polymarket US 56.5¢, Polymarket 58.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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