Iowa governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Rob Sand) to win the Iowa governor race: Kalshi 87.5¢, Polymarket US 88.5¢, Polymarket 87.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Iowa governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 87.5¢ | -700 | 87¢ | 88¢ | $843k |
| Polymarket US | 88.5¢ | -770 | 88¢ | 89¢ | $10.4M |
| Polymarket | 87.5¢ | -700 | 87¢ | 88¢ | $137k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| YouGov | 2026-10-12 | 2,245 LV | Rob Sand 50 · Zach Lahn 44 | +6 |
| Marist University | 2026-10-11 | 1,100 LV | Rob Sand 52 · Zach Lahn 45 | +7 |
| Emerson College | 2026-10-06 | 650 LV | Rob Sand 49 · Zach Lahn 45.3 | +3.7 |
| CNN/SSRS | 2026-10-05 | 801 LV | Rob Sand 51 · Zach Lahn 42 | +9 |
| The New York Times/Siena University | 2026-10-01 | 606 LV | Rob Sand 52 · Zach Lahn 41 | +11 |
| Beacon Research/Shaw & Co. Research | 2026-09-28 | 1,008 LV | Rob Sand 53 · Zach Lahn 44 | +9 |
| Marist University | 2026-09-20 | 1,050 RV | Rob Sand 54 · Zach Lahn 42 | +12 |
| co/efficient | 2026-09-16 | 831 LV | Rob Sand 46 · Zach Lahn 42 | +4 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Iowa governor race?
Democrats (Rob Sand) to win the Iowa governor race: Kalshi 87.5¢, Polymarket US 88.5¢, Polymarket 87.5¢. The exchanges are 1¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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