Kansas Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Roger Marshall) to win the Kansas Senate race: Kalshi 61.5¢, Polymarket US 63.5¢, Polymarket 62.5¢. The exchanges are 2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Kansas Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 61.5¢ | -160 | 61¢ | 62¢ | $1.6M |
| Polymarket US | 63.5¢ | -174 | 63¢ | 64¢ | $291k |
| Polymarket | 62.5¢ | -167 | 62¢ | 63¢ | $534k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-10-14 | 1,200 LV | Roger Marshall 48 · Adam Hamilton 47 | +1 |
| Wedgewood Polls | 2026-09-24 | 500 LV | Adam Hamilton 50 · Roger Marshall 48 · David Graham 2 | +2 |
| Emerson College | 2026-09-16 | 750 LV | Adam Hamilton 45 · Roger Marshall 43 · David Graham 4 | +2 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Kansas Senate race?
Republicans (Roger Marshall) to win the Kansas Senate race: Kalshi 61.5¢, Polymarket US 63.5¢, Polymarket 62.5¢. The exchanges are 2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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