Arkansas Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Tom Cotton) to win the Arkansas Senate race: Kalshi 94.95¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 94.8¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Arkansas Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 94.95¢ | -1880 | 94.8¢ | 95.1¢ | $70k |
| Polymarket US | 95.5¢ | -2122 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $282k |
| Polymarket | 94.8¢ | -1823 | 94.7¢ | 94.9¢ | $25k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hendrix College | 2026-10-13 | 709 LV | Tom Cotton 50 · Hallie Shoffner 41 · Jeff Wadlin 5 | +9 |
| Grayhouse | 2026-10-04 | 550 LV | Tom Cotton 51 · Hallie Shoffner 40 · Jeff Wadlin 4 | +11 |
| J.L. Partners | 2026-08-18 | 803 LV | Tom Cotton 51 · Hallie Shoffner 35 · Jeff Wadlin 4 | +16 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Arkansas Senate race?
Republicans (Tom Cotton) to win the Arkansas Senate race: Kalshi 94.95¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 94.8¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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