North Carolina Senate race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Democrats (Roy Cooper) to win the North Carolina Senate race: Kalshi 95.75¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 96.15¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
North Carolina Senate betting odds by venue
| Venue | Democrats win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 95.75¢ | -2253 | 95.5¢ | 96¢ | $1.6M |
| Polymarket US | 95.5¢ | -2122 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $1.3M |
| Polymarket | 96.15¢ | -2497 | 95.9¢ | 96.4¢ | $114k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Democrats win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SurveyUSA | 2026-10-11 | 643 LV | Roy Cooper 54 · Michael Whatley 40 | +14 |
| Change Research | 2026-10-07 | 829 LV | Roy Cooper 50 · Michael Whatley 40 · Shannon Bray 2 | +10 |
| East Carolina University | 2026-10-03 | 810 LV | Roy Cooper 53 · Michael Whatley 46 · Shannon Bray 2 | +7 |
| Big Data Poll | 2026-09-29 | 642 LV | Roy Cooper 51 · Michael Whatley 39 · Shannon Bray 7 | +12 |
| InsiderAdvantage | 2026-09-17 | 1,200 LV | Roy Cooper 48.4 · Michael Whatley 42.5 · Shannon Bray 1.6 | +5.9 |
| High Point University Survey Research Center | 2026-09-16 | 706 LV | Roy Cooper 50 · Michael Whatley 42 | +8 |
| Harper Polling | 2026-09-15 | 608 LV | Roy Cooper 49 · Michael Whatley 34 · Shannon Bray 3 | +15 |
| East Carolina University | 2026-09-03 | 675 LV | Roy Cooper 52 · Michael Whatley 44 · Shannon Bray 3 | +8 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the North Carolina Senate race?
Democrats (Roy Cooper) to win the North Carolina Senate race: Kalshi 95.75¢, Polymarket US 95.5¢, Polymarket 96.15¢. The exchanges agree within about a cent. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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