Florida governor race odds
Kalshi vs Polymarket · updated Oct 20, 1:00 AM ET
Republicans (Byron Donalds) to win the Florida governor race: Kalshi 79.5¢, Polymarket US 81.5¢, Polymarket 80.5¢. The exchanges are 2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Florida governor betting odds by venue
| Venue | Republicans win | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 79.5¢ | -388 | 79¢ | 80¢ | $2.0M |
| Polymarket US | 81.5¢ | -441 | 81¢ | 82¢ | $1.0M |
| Polymarket | 80.5¢ | -413 | 80¢ | 81¢ | $150k |
Each row prices the outcome it names, in cents; 50¢ is a coin flip. Volume is in each venue’s own units. Full venue comparison
Price history
Last 90 days, Republicans win. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Polls beside the prices
| Pollster | Fieldwork ends | Sample | Result | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Change Research | 2026-10-10 | 920 LV | David Jolly 47 · Byron Donalds 47 | +0 |
| MDW Communications | 2026-10-10 | 2,351 LV | Byron Donalds 46 · David Jolly 44 | +2 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-10-07 | 836 LV | Byron Donalds 45 · David Jolly 45 | +0 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-10-04 | 1,200 RV | Byron Donalds 48 · David Jolly 39 | +9 |
| Targoz Market Research | 2026-10-04 | 857 LV | Byron Donalds 52 · David Jolly 42 | +10 |
| Change Research | 2026-09-27 | 1,063 LV | David Jolly 48 · Byron Donalds 46 | +2 |
| Stetson University Center for Public Opinion Research | 2026-09-21 | 830 LV | Byron Donalds 51 · David Jolly 39 | +12 |
| St. Pete Polls | 2026-09-17 | 913 LV | Byron Donalds 43.5 · David Jolly 43.4 | +0.1 |
Polls: VoteHub (CC BY 4.0). A poll is a separate reading of the same race; the two can differ with neither being wrong.
Common questions
What are the odds in the Florida governor race?
Republicans (Byron Donalds) to win the Florida governor race: Kalshi 79.5¢, Polymarket US 81.5¢, Polymarket 80.5¢. The exchanges are 2¢ apart. A price of 67¢ means the market implies roughly a 67% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same race?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A gap of a cent or two is ordinary; a larger gap can come from a thin book or from a settlement-rule difference, which is why each venue links to its own contract.
Is the price a forecast?
No. It is what the best order or last trade implies at that venue. ThinBlimp shows both venues side by side and does not take wagers or give advice.
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