How do Kalshi and Polymarket prices move during a live NFL game?
ThinBlimp guide · game read from Kalshi's minute-by-minute prices, October 11, 2026 · nothing here is advice
During a game the price is the market's running estimate of each team's chance to win, traded again after every play: it drifts with field position, jumps on scores and turnovers, and gets more extreme as the clock runs down. Late in a close game a single play can take a team from 99¢ to 1¢, which is what happened to the Eagles against the Jaguars in London on October 11, 2026.
What did that look like?
The Eagles' price to win on Kalshi at each turn of the game, Eastern time:
| Time | Play | Score after | Eagles |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9:58 AM | Lawrence to Washington, 51 yards | Jaguars 7–0 | 18¢ |
| 10:42 AM | Hurts to Cooper, 62 yards | Eagles 14–7 | 48¢ |
| 12:50 PM | Lawrence to Washington, 27 yards | Jaguars 16–14 | 37¢ |
| 1:10 PM | Elliott, 48-yard field goal, 8 seconds left | Eagles 17–16 | 99¢ (−9900) |
| 1:13 PM | Little, 57-yard field goal as time expires | Jaguars 19–17 | 1¢ |
Between the last two plays the Jaguars returned the kickoff 53 yards to the Eagles' 39. The Eagles went from 99¢ to 1¢ in three minutes. Polymarket US's line followed the same path, but its trading that day was too sparse to quote minute by minute.
Why do prices swing more late in the game?
Because each play matters more when there is less time left. A touchdown in the first quarter changes a team's chances by a little; the same score with two minutes left can decide the game. That is why the Eagles' price wandered between about 40¢ and 60¢ for most of the middle of the game and then went from 37¢ to 99¢ to 1¢ in the last half hour.
Does 99¢ mean the game is over?
No. 99¢ means the market gave the other side about a 1-in-100 chance. One-in-100 outcomes happen; at 99¢ you risk 99¢ to win 1¢, and the Eagles lost.
Can I trade during the game?
Yes, on both venues, until the market closes. Two things work differently in play:
- You buy at the ask and sell at the bid, and both move with every play. See what you get if you sell before the game ends.
- A price can be stale. If a venue has not traded since the last big play, its price is from before that play. Check when each price last moved before comparing venues.
Questions
How do Kalshi prices move during a live NFL game?
The price is the market’s running chance of each team winning, traded again after every play. It drifts with field position, jumps on scores and turnovers, and swings harder as the clock runs down.
Does a 99¢ price mean the game is decided?
No. It means about a 1-in-100 chance for the other side. On October 11 the Eagles were 99¢ on Kalshi with 8 seconds left and lost 19–17 on a 57-yard field goal as time expired.
Why do prices swing more at the end of a game?
Each play matters more with less time left. The Eagles’ price stayed near the middle for much of that game, then went from 37¢ to 99¢ to 1¢ in the last half hour.
Can I trade during the game?
Yes, on Kalshi and Polymarket US, until the market closes. You buy at the ask and sell at the bid, and both move with every play.