2028 Republican VP Nominee odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Top 5 candidates · updated Oct 30, 10:01 AM ET
Marco Rubio leads the 2028 Republican vice-presidential nominee odds at 26.5¢ on Kalshi and 10.65¢ on Polymarket US. J.D. Vance is next at 5.3¢ on Kalshi and 4.55¢ on Polymarket US. A price of 20¢ means the market implies roughly a 20% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
2028 Republican VP Nominee odds by candidate
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Gap | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marco Rubio | 26.5¢ | 10.65¢ (US) · thin | — | 0¢ | −1¢ |
| J.D. Vance | 5.3¢ | 4.55¢ (US) · thin | — | −0.2¢ | −0.1¢ |
| Glenn Youngkin | 2.3¢ | 4.85¢ (US) · thin | — | +0.25¢ | +0.8¢ |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.35¢ | 4.65¢ (US) · thin | — | 0¢ | −1.05¢ |
| Erika Kirk | 2.7¢ | — | — | −0.45¢ | +0.2¢ |
Each price is that venue’s price for the candidate, in cents. Gap is Kalshi against Polymarket (Polymarket US where Polymarket International does not list the candidate). A thin book is priced but not compared, so it has no gap.The 7- and 30-day changes are Kalshi’s.
Price history, top 4
Last 90 days. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed, one colour per candidate. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Common questions
Who will be the 2028 Republican vice-presidential nominee?
Marco Rubio leads the 2028 Republican vice-presidential nominee odds at 26.5¢ on Kalshi and 10.65¢ on Polymarket US. J.D. Vance is next at 5.3¢ on Kalshi and 4.55¢ on Polymarket US. A price of 20¢ means the market implies roughly a 20% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Where can I see every 2028 Republican vice-presidential nominee candidate?
This page lists the top 5 candidates the venues price. ThinBlimp's Panorama has the whole field on both venues, its price history, polls and the checks across related markets.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same candidate?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A cent or two apart is ordinary; a wider gap usually sits on a thinly traded candidate.
The whole field
Open the 2028 Republican vice-presidential nominee in the Panorama — every candidate on both venues, the race over time, polls and the cross-checks against related markets.