2028 Republican Nominee odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Top 10 candidates · updated Oct 30, 10:42 AM ET
J.D. Vance leads the 2028 Republican presidential nominee odds at 36.5¢ on Kalshi and 39.65¢ on Polymarket. Marco Rubio is next at 19.5¢ on Kalshi and 18.5¢ on Polymarket. A price of 20¢ means the market implies roughly a 20% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
2028 Republican Nominee odds by candidate
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gap | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 36.5¢ | 39.65¢ | 36.5¢ | 3.15¢ | −5¢ | −8¢ |
| Marco Rubio | 19.5¢ | 18.5¢ | 19.5¢ | 1¢ | +1¢ | +2¢ |
| Ron DeSantis | 4.9¢ | 3.5¢ | 5.5¢ | 1.4¢ | 0¢ | +0.55¢ |
| Donald J. Trump Jr. | 3.15¢ | 1.7¢ | 2.5¢ | 1.45¢ | +0.4¢ | +0.25¢ |
| Tucker Carlson | 2.7¢ | 2.95¢ | 2.5¢ | 0.25¢ | +0.45¢ | 0¢ |
| Ted Cruz | 2.3¢ | 2.5¢ | 3.5¢ | 0.2¢ | +0.05¢ | +0.45¢ |
| Donald J. Trump | 2.05¢ | 1.65¢ | 1.5¢ | 0.4¢ | −0.4¢ | +0.1¢ |
| Brian Kemp | 1.7¢ | 0.75¢ | — | 0.95¢ | +0.15¢ | +0.9¢ |
| Ivanka Trump | 1.15¢ | 1.45¢ | — | 0.3¢ | +0.05¢ | −0.05¢ |
| Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1.35¢ | 0.35¢ | 1.5¢ | 1¢ | +0.85¢ | +0.6¢ |
Each price is that venue’s price for the candidate, in cents. Gap is Kalshi against Polymarket.The 7- and 30-day changes are Kalshi’s. 35 more candidates are priced; the full field is in the Panorama.
Price history, top 4
Last 90 days. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed, one colour per candidate. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Common questions
Who will be the 2028 Republican presidential nominee?
J.D. Vance leads the 2028 Republican presidential nominee odds at 36.5¢ on Kalshi and 39.65¢ on Polymarket. Marco Rubio is next at 19.5¢ on Kalshi and 18.5¢ on Polymarket. A price of 20¢ means the market implies roughly a 20% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Where can I see every 2028 Republican presidential nominee candidate?
This page lists the top 10 of 45 candidates the venues price. ThinBlimp's Panorama has the whole field on both venues, its price history, polls and the checks across related markets.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same candidate?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A cent or two apart is ordinary; a wider gap usually sits on a thinly traded candidate.
The whole field
Open the 2028 Republican presidential nominee in the Panorama — every candidate on both venues, the race over time, polls and the cross-checks against related markets.