2028 Democratic Nominee odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket
Top 10 candidates · updated Oct 30, 10:52 AM ET
Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 17.5¢ on Kalshi and 16.75¢ on Polymarket. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is next at 13.5¢ on Kalshi and 16.75¢ on Polymarket. A price of 20¢ means the market implies roughly a 20% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
2028 Democratic Nominee odds by candidate
| Candidate | Kalshi | Polymarket | Polymarket US | Gap | 7 days | 30 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Newsom | 17.5¢ | 16.75¢ | 18.5¢ | 0.75¢ | +4¢ | +4¢ |
| Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13.5¢ | 16.75¢ | 11.5¢ | 3.25¢ | 0¢ | −1¢ |
| Jon Ossoff | 15.5¢ | 15.55¢ | 15.5¢ | 0.05¢ | 0¢ | −1¢ |
| Kamala Harris | 6.75¢ | 5.15¢ | 5.5¢ | 1.6¢ | −0.35¢ | −0.25¢ |
| Josh Shapiro | 4.95¢ | 5.15¢ | 4.5¢ | 0.2¢ | +0.4¢ | +0.3¢ |
| Pete Buttigieg | 4.55¢ | 5.15¢ | 5.5¢ | 0.6¢ | −0.1¢ | −0.5¢ |
| Andy Beshear | 4.7¢ | 3.65¢ | 5.5¢ | 1.05¢ | −0.65¢ | −1.45¢ |
| Mark Kelly | 3.6¢ | 2¢ | 3.5¢ | 1.6¢ | −0.05¢ | −0.65¢ |
| James Talarico | 2.8¢ | 2.45¢ | 3.5¢ | 0.35¢ | +0.3¢ | −0.9¢ |
| J.B. Pritzker | 2.65¢ | 1.45¢ | 2.5¢ | 1.2¢ | +0.05¢ | +0.6¢ |
Each price is that venue’s price for the candidate, in cents. Gap is Kalshi against Polymarket.The 7- and 30-day changes are Kalshi’s. 42 more candidates are priced; the full field is in the Panorama.
Price history, top 4
Last 90 days. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed, one colour per candidate. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
Common questions
Who will be the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee?
Gavin Newsom leads the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee odds at 17.5¢ on Kalshi and 16.75¢ on Polymarket. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is next at 13.5¢ on Kalshi and 16.75¢ on Polymarket. A price of 20¢ means the market implies roughly a 20% chance; it is a price, not a forecast.
Where can I see every 2028 Democratic presidential nominee candidate?
This page lists the top 10 of 52 candidates the venues price. ThinBlimp's Panorama has the whole field on both venues, its price history, polls and the checks across related markets.
Why do Kalshi and Polymarket show different prices for the same candidate?
Each exchange is its own order book with its own traders, fees and rules. A cent or two apart is ordinary; a wider gap usually sits on a thinly traded candidate.
The whole field
Open the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee in the Panorama — every candidate on both venues, the race over time, polls and the cross-checks against related markets.