How often does this trade need to win?
The fee raises the bar above the price. A resting order lowers it back.
Break-even win rate, buying the ask
| Price | Kalshi | Polymarket sports | Polymarket politics | Polymarket US |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10¢ | 10.63% | 10.45% | 10.36% | 10.63% |
| 25¢ | 26.32% | 25.94% | 25.75% | 26.30% |
| 50¢ | 51.75% | 51.25% | 51.00% | 51.74% |
| 75¢ | 76.32% | 75.94% | 75.75% | 76.30% |
| 90¢ | 90.63% | 90.45% | 90.36% | 90.63% |
What is a break-even win rate?
The share of the time a trade has to win just to get your money back. A contract that pays $1 and costs 55¢ plus a fee needs to win more than 55% of the time.
Why is the break-even higher than the price?
Buying at the ask pays a taker fee on top of the price. On Kalshi, 100 contracts at 55¢ carry a $1.74 fee, so each contract really costs 56.74¢ and needs to win 56.74% of the time.
Does a limit order change the break-even?
Yes. A resting limit order pays no fee on most markets, so it breaks even at the price itself. The catch is that it fills only if a seller comes to you.
Limit orders vs buying the ask →Fee calculator →Odds converter →
Informational only, not trading advice. Confirm rates against your own fills.
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