Will Democrats win the United States Senate in 2026?
Politics · closes Feb 1, 10:00 AM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 62.95¢, Kalshi at 62.5¢ — a 0.45¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62.5¢ | -167 | 62¢ | 63¢ | $6.9M | Oct 20, 2:07 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 62.95¢ | -170 | 62.9¢ | 63¢ | $20.2M | Oct 20, 1:15 AM ET |
0.45¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
If the Democratic Party has won control of the U.S. Senate in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this market — both venues streaming, the order book, the arbitrage calculator and related news.