U.S Senate Midterm Winner: Democratic Party
Politics · closes Feb 1, 11:59 PM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 62.95¢, Kalshi at 62.5¢ — a 0.45¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 62.5¢ | -167 | 62¢ | 63¢ | $6.9M | Oct 20, 2:52 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 62.95¢ | -170 | 62.9¢ | 63¢ | $20.2M | Oct 20, 2:15 AM ET |
0.45¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
This market will settle to Yes if the Democratic Party wins control of the United States Senate in the 2026 United States midterm election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States Senate. A party wins control of the United States Senate if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the party that wins control of the chamber is the party that wins half of the voting seats and holds the Vice Presidency. If the outcome remains ambiguous after applying the above criteria, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first selected President Pro Tempore of the Congress that convenes after the specified election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All regular and special Senate elections that determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress and are scheduled to take place in November 2026 as of October 31, 2026 are included. Runoffs for qualifying elections will determine attribution of the relevant seat, even if they take place after November 2026. Vacant seats for which no electi…
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
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