Will Democrats win the Senate race in Virginia? — Mark Warner
Politics · closes Jan 3, 10:00 AM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. The venues agree within the tick. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 97.5¢ | -3900 | 97.2¢ | 97.8¢ | $19k | Oct 20, 2:00 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 97.5¢ | -3900 | 97¢ | 98¢ | $107k | Oct 20, 1:15 AM ET |
0¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Virginia for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
Open it in the terminal
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