Will Republicans win the Senate race in South Dakota? — Mike Rounds
Politics · closes Jan 3, 10:00 AM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 93.5¢, Kalshi at 91.9¢ — a 1.6¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 91.9¢ | -1135 | 91.8¢ | 92¢ | $124k | Oct 20, 2:00 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 93.5¢ | -1438 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $180k | Oct 20, 1:15 AM ET |
1.6¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of South Dakota for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this market — both venues streaming, the order book, the arbitrage calculator and related news.