Will the Democratic party win the governorship in New Mexico — Deb Haaland
Politics · closes Jan 1, 10:00 AM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 94.5¢, Kalshi at 93.5¢ — a 1¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 93.5¢ | -1438 | 93¢ | 94¢ | $41k | Oct 20, 2:00 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 94.5¢ | -1718 | 94¢ | 95¢ | $399k | Oct 20, 1:15 AM ET |
1¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
If a representative of the Democratic party is inaugurated as the governor of New Mexico pursuant to the 2026 election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this market — both venues streaming, the order book, the arbitrage calculator and related news.