Will Democrats win the Senate race in Arkansas? — Hallie Shoffner
Politics · closes Jan 3, 10:00 AM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 5.5¢, Kalshi at 5.05¢ — a 0.45¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 5.05¢ | +1880 | 4.8¢ | 5.3¢ | $188k | Oct 20, 2:00 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 5.5¢ | +1718 | 5¢ | 6¢ | $28k | Oct 20, 2:15 AM ET |
0.45¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
If a representative of the Democratic party is sworn in as a Senator of Arkansas for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this market — both venues streaming, the order book, the arbitrage calculator and related news.