Will Republicans win the Senate race in Idaho? — Jim Risch
Politics · closes Jan 3, 10:00 AM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 95.5¢, Kalshi at 94.65¢ — a 0.85¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 94.65¢ | -1769 | 94.5¢ | 94.8¢ | $161k | Oct 20, 2:00 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 95.5¢ | -2122 | 95¢ | 96¢ | $330k | Oct 20, 1:15 AM ET |
0.85¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
If a representative of the Republican party is sworn in as a Senator of Idaho for the term beginning in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
Open it in the terminal
Live card for this market — both venues streaming, the order book, the arbitrage calculator and related news.