U.S House Midterm Winner: Republican Party
Politics · closes Feb 1, 11:59 PM ET
Kalshi vs Polymarket US on the same question. Polymarket US prices YES at 10.55¢, Kalshi at 9.95¢ — a 0.6¢ gap. Prices are each venue’s own; confirm at the venue before acting.
Prices by venue
| Venue | YES | Odds | Bid | Ask | Volume | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | 9.95¢ | +905 | 9.9¢ | 10¢ | $41.1M | Oct 20, 2:57 AM ET |
| Polymarket US | 10.55¢ | +848 | 10.5¢ | 10.6¢ | $7.8M | Oct 20, 2:15 AM ET |
0.6¢cross-venue gap on YES. Two quotes differ only when each venue’s book rules out the other’s price; a one-sided or wide book reads as a bound, not a price.
Price history
Last 90 days, daily closes beyond the raw week. Kalshi solid, Polymarket dashed. A break in a line is a gap in the record, not a move.
How it settles
This market will settle to Yes if the Republican Party wins control of the United States House of Representatives in the 2026 United States midterm election. Outcome sourced from relevant state electoral authorities, and the United States House of Representatives. A party wins control of the United States House of Representatives if it wins a majority of the chamber’s voting seats. If no party wins a majority of voting seats, the chamber will be deemed controlled by the party with which the first elected Speaker of the House of the Congress that convenes after the 2026 midterm election is affiliated. The following rules govern the counting of seats for determining which party wins control of the chamber. All House elections in the 2026 United States midterm election that elect voting members and determine representation in the upcoming 120th Congress are included. Where a seat is decided by a runoff, the runoff result will determine attribution of that seat. Seats are attributed to the party under which the member was elected. If a member-elect changes party affiliation, or vacates their seat, between election day and the formal organization of Congress, the seat is attributed …
Each venue settles on its own rules; the text above is the primary venue’s. A gap can be a rules difference, not a mispricing.
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